Timing is hard.
Timing can be everything. And nothing.
In value investing, a short term trading mentality generally results in poor returns; the reverse is also generally true.
Some things are inherently difficult to time. When is the right time to quit your job and focus on your business? When should you propose to your partner? What activities should you persist with and what should you give up?
I have not reached a resolution here, but have two thoughts:
- Opportunity cost: Constantly assess whether your time could be better spent doing something else.
- Catastrophe risk: Understand and mitigate your downside exposure caused by uncertain timing.
The greatest challenge we've had is best illustrated by this image.